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11 November 2007

Apple down ten. Why?

Apple fell ten points Friday, and I just realized why.

When it came to me, it felt so obvious. Apple is down ten points because investors saw Google fall. They thought that Apple would fall further and saw an easy way to flip some Apple stock around the iPhone Europe launch. Or they thought that it would be safer to pull out their money. Then, I looked at this chart:



I looked at that chart and the Google Finance chart and saw that Yahoo used a semi-logarithm scale. If I extrapolate a line from the log scale I get this:



There always seem to be a small dips before the holiday selling seasons. I think that this may just be normal behavior for a stock as volatile as Apple's. What the log chart does not show, and what Google's does, is that Apple has gotten more and more volatile. More people investing means more that can change.

If I extend the extrapolation line, Apple stock would hit $200 per share by their second quarter in their fiscal year.


I realize that ten points is nothing to overanalyze. I am just trying to justify the dip as normal for the time of year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You need to look outside the tech stocks to see why Apple stock went down.

Find out what CDOs are and follow the headlines about the housing markets and you may have your answer.