On Penguins and Netbooks

Microsoft is expected to start courting users of netbooks soon. A lot of netbooks, including the iconic EEE PC, currently are running a modified version of Linux. Other notebooks are doing a clever dual boot by default: they are running a stripped down version of linux that boots very quickly and are also running a full-blown operating system (most likely Windows). That way, users can run their Windows applications, but are also able to use their computer to quickly accomplish the most common tasks. Microsoft will have a hard time asserting dominance here because the stripped down version of Linux accomplishes all of the simple operating system tasks: IM, email, and web browsing. With the influx of web applications available, a lot can be done in the browser included in the lightweight Linux environment. Thus, Microsoft will need to shorten boot times and provide a compelling reason to boot into a full OS, and they will maintain that reason, as open source can adapt very quickly. Microsoft is no longer the borg. Its speed of adaption is much slower than the myriad of open source apps out there. And when there really is no more need for anything but web applications, Microsoft will need to succeed in a market that they are already in and are not doing well in.

Disclosure: I do not believe that the day will come when we will survive on only web applications and desktop games.